London Covid Cases Fall!

 The End To Restrictions Has A Surprising Result!

Covid infections have been falling

When the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that 'Freedom Day' would end restrictions, people were naturally sceptical. After all, with cases in the tens of thousands each and every day, it might haven seemed, and certainly some predicted, that cases could top 100,000 each day, and the NHS would be overwhelmed. Has that been the case?

Initially, cases easily topped 50 thousand per day, and the authorities had recognised that this could occur. However, as of this time, cases continue to fall, currently down to just under twenty five thousand per day.
This is clearly not what was expected, however, it is a welcome surprise!

However, it is not all good news...

Death Rates Spike

It might seem that the following case numbers is joy without a dark cloud. However, one statistic has emerged that dampens that thought process. In the article linked to above, it also states that deaths resulting from where Covid was named on the certificate have passed 100, 131 to be precise. So, is that, in itself, a new and worrying trend?

The article goes on to say that the previous day 14 deaths were reported from the same criteria. This is down from between 50 and 100 just after the restrictions were lifted. So, the trend has been down since that time. So, why the sudden spike, and should it concern us?

Any loss of life can, and should, concern us. However, if we are going to look at the issue purely in terms of statistics...without emotion...then it is not time to panic. Why is that?

One consistent statistic of the Pandemic is that death rates have generally been much less than 1% of total infections. This means that if you get 100,000 infections, you could generally expect less than 1000 deaths, although no one would choose to see 1000 deaths!

So, when 131 deaths are reported, it can mean one of two things:

  • A new and highly fatal strain has emerged(unlikely), or
  • There has been a statistical anomaly.

Since the number of infections is steadily falling, there would be, in all likelihood, a corresponding decline in fatalities. Yesterday, for instance, there were only 14 reported that figure is 131.

The change in figures is not showing that there has been a trend change. Not at all. It could be that the method of reporting caused a spike in deaths, issues such as delayed reporting, for example. However, if the death numbers consistently change from this point on...that would indicate a change in trend...and would rightly cause major concern.

The Takeaway of It All

Observing case numbers is of concern to all. For instance, the prospect of another lockdown is a major fear of retailers. As owner of London business listings, I have seen first hand, the effect of the lockdown on the smaller participants in the economy.

Fear is one of Covid's biggest weapons. However, day to day statistics have limited impact. It is far more important to look at trends. In this case of updated numbers, the trends remain somewhat positive, despite the sad loss of more than 100 UK citizens.

So, if there is a bad day(such as today), observe but don't panic..tomorrow will come, and more often than not, when the trend is positive, the new day will be likewise!